Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
